🗓️ Monday, November 24, 2025
📍 Thailand

🇹🇭 Thailand’s 2025 Property Market: Big Slump, Big Hopes, and a “Quick Big Win” 🚀

📉 Market Decline in the First 9 Months of 2025

Residential property transfers from January–September 2025 fell sharply:
• 🔻 9.3% drop in transfer volume (227,106 units)
• 🔻 12.4% drop in value (617.7 billion baht)
• Condos performed worst, with a 13.3% decline in unit transfers and a 19.3% decline in value.

Weak consumer purchasing power was the main factor behind the slump.

📈 Early Signs of Recovery in Q3 2025

The market gained momentum in Q3:
• 🔹 Property transfers rose 9.1% QoQ to 84,397 units.

This rebound was driven by:
• 💸 0.01% transfer & mortgage fee cuts for homes under 7M baht
• 🏦 Relaxed LTV rules (higher loan amounts allowed)
• 📉 Low interest rates boosting buyer confidence
• 🤝 Developers offering more flexible pricing

A standout metric: low-rise homes under 1M baht saw a 37% jump in transfers.

🚀 Q4 2025 Forecast: A Strong Rebound Expected

The REIC forecasts a robust recovery in Q4, supported by the government’s major stimulus package:
• 📈 Expected 13.1% increase in property transfers (95,484 units)
• 🏡 Housing loans projected to rise 9.5%, hitting 160.7 billion baht

This recovery hinges on the government's “Quick Big Win” measures, which aim to boost the economy through:
• 💵 Consumer support (Khon La Khrueng Plus, tourism tax breaks)
• 🧾 Household debt resolution (AMC, loan restructuring)
• 🔌 Economic lubrication (faster budget spending, clean energy investment)
• 🏭 SME support programs

⚠️ Key Risks to Watch

Despite the optimism, several challenges remain:
• ⚠️ Thailand’s household debt remains very high
• 🏚️ Unsold housing stock reportedly totals nearly 2 trillion baht
• 🌏 Foreign condo-buying has slowed
• 🏗️ Smaller developers face liquidity risks

✅ At-a-Glance Summary

• 📉 Huge slump in early 2025
• 🔄 Q3 sees a rebound thanks to policy support
• 🚀 Q4 expected to jump +13% if stimulus hits
• ⚠️ Debt + unsold units + weak foreign demand remain major risks